Global air capacity exceeds pre-pandemic levels

2025 is shaping up to be an excellent year for the airline industry, according to the latest study from the International Civil Aviation Organization, as most regions of the world have already reached or exceeded 2019 capacity levels (available seats) ahead of the upcoming winter season.

Except Southeast Asia

With the exception of Southeast Asia, most regions have already reached or exceeded 2019’s available seats; 2025 is expected to end as a strong year.

Ahead of the upcoming winter season, most regions of the world have already matched or exceeded the capacity recorded in 2019, so the 2025 shutdown could be positive for the airline industry.

Southeast Asia is the only region that has not been able to reach pre-pandemic levels, although with forecast growth of 5.2% for this winter, the market is expected to ultimately exceed these levels by the end of 2026.

It recorded the strongest year-on-year winter growth at 4.7%, followed by North America with 4.6%.

In terms of countries, Turkey leads the way with annual growth of 9.3%.

Brazil (7.2%), the United Kingdom (2.7%), and Spain (2.2%) also stand out.

Worldwide international capacity increased by 5.8%, compared to 2.6% on domestic routes, now representing 40% of all seats, compared to 38% in winter 2019.

America first

In this region, the United States remains the largest international market, with 3% more capacity than in 2024, driven by new routes to destinations such as the Caribbean and Mexico.

The United Kingdom ranks second, while Spain recorded an increase of more than 6% in its international capacity, showing that, despite its recent disputes with Ryanair, the country remains key for most airlines.

Regarding the domestic market, demand in the United States is showing signs of slowing, with growth of less than 2% compared to the previous winter, partly due to staff reductions at Spirit Airlines, which is undergoing a financial restructuring process.

In contrast, China is forecasting 6% growth in its domestic market, while India, which represents a quarter of the Chinese market, is expecting growth of 7.6%.

In terms of expected seat availability this season, American Airlines leads the domestic markets with 118.2 million seats, up 5.1% compared to last year.

Delta Air Lines (100 million, up 2.8%) and United (95 million, up 6.3%) complete the podium.