Cuba remains tense despite the arrival of the Russians

In the context of an unprecedented energy crisis, Cuba holds its breath as the Russian oil tanker Anatoly Kolodkin heads towards the island, potentially marking the first crude oil delivery of 2026.

This ship, carrying 730,000 barrels, is currently about 3,000 nautical miles away and is expected to dock within ten days, according to Jorge Pinon, an expert at the University of Texas.

This cargo is of vital importance to an island whose electrical grid, despite a precarious recovery of solar and thermal power plants, remains in ruins and paralyzed by chronic outages.

However, the challenge remains: this crude oil must be refined locally, and experts estimate that it would only yield 180,000 barrels of diesel, barely enough to cover national consumption for nine or ten days.

Meanwhile, a second ship, the Sea Horse, flying the Hong Kong flag and carrying 200,000 barrels of diesel, was detected 958 nautical miles from Matanzas after suspiciously anchoring for twenty days in the middle of the Atlantic, a typical maneuver to evade international sanctions.

These « ghost fleet » maneuvers aim to circumvent the US energy blockade and EU sanctions related to the conflict in Ukraine, with the Anatoly Kolodkin itself on the list of sanctioned vessels.

Meanwhile, military surveillance is intensifying: General Francis Donovan, head of the US Southern Command, confirmed before the Senate the monitoring of a Russian destroyer escorting a supply ship to Cuba, while downplaying the actual impact of these deliveries on the island’s long-term energy stability.

While Washington is ruling out military intervention for the time being, the priority remains protecting the Guantanamo base and the embassy, ​​while also remaining prepared to respond to a potential migration or humanitarian crisis triggered by the collapse of essential services.

For the Cuban government, these shipments represent a temporary lifeline primarily intended for critical sectors such as agriculture and transportation, but they will not be enough to mask the structural obsolescence of a failing electrical system.