Global tourism: Who are the big winners of the Gulf War?

As the conflict in the Middle East paralyzes the Gulf’s historical hubs and drastically reshapes the global tourism landscape in March 2026, many players and destinations are profiting from this major geopolitical shift.

At the forefront, Air France-KLM has emerged as the major European beneficiary thanks to its direct, point-to-point flight model, which avoids the turbulent waters of the Levant and risky stopovers in Dubai or Doha.

Its subsidiary, Air France Holidays, the in-house tour operator, is experiencing a massive surge in bookings, attracting high-end travelers who are foregoing connecting flights to Asia in favor of the security of non-stop flights operated by the French airline.

At the same time, there has been a massive shift in tourist traffic towards Southern Europe: Spanish destinations, and more specifically the Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands, and the entire Mediterranean basin, are posting record occupancy rates for the season, driven by their image as a « haven of peace » in the immediate vicinity.

This situation also benefits Western oil distributors and storage companies who, despite soaring crude oil prices, are seeing their refining margins increase due to the dwindling supply from the Gulf.

Travel agencies and cruise lines operating exclusively in the Western Mediterranean and the Caribbean are now capturing the financial windfall initially intended for safaris in the Gulf or luxury stays in the Emirates, transforming this regional crisis into an unexpected growth driver for players in local tourism and direct connectivity.

This war is disrupting global tourism.

In the Middle East, in particular, industry professionals estimate that the number of visitors could fall by up to 27% this year.