Demand for air travel is expected to more than double by 2050

According to the latest long-term projections (LTDP) published by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global air passenger demand is poised for massive expansion, more than doubling by mid-century.

In the baseline scenario, traffic would reach 20.8 trillion revenue passenger-kilometers (RPKs) in 2050, compared to 9 trillion in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.1%.

This growth, which could range between 2.9% and 3.3% depending on economic and energy scenarios, is based on complex models that incorporate demographic trends, fuel prices, and the speed of the ecological transition.

For Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA, this dynamism is a key driver of social development and global employment, but it requires governments to build harmonized regulatory frameworks and infrastructure capable of absorbing this influx now.

The geography of the skies will, however, undergo profound transformation: growth will be driven by emerging markets, with Asia-Pacific (+3.8%) and Africa (+3.6%) leading the way, while Europe and North America will show more moderate growth of around 2.5%.

The most dynamic corridors will be located within the African continent (+4.9%) and on the routes linking Africa to Asia, contrasting with the relative stagnation of several intra-European markets.

This structural shift underlines the urgent need for massive investments in developing regions and the necessity of a successful transition to clean energy to reconcile this appetite for travel with the climate imperatives of 2050.